Paper 3 practice set: Recession and unemployment in Velmora. Part (a)(i) of 10, 2 marks
HL Paper 3-style policy question, part (a)(i) (AI-written practice set; not an IB question).
Paragraph 1: Velmora is a small, open economy: its exports are equal to 28% of GDP. A recession among its main trading partners reduced export orders in Year 2. Real output fell and unemployment rose to 610,000 people, 7.6% of the labour force. The labour ministry estimates that 70% of the unemployed lost their jobs because of the fall in demand. The rest lack the skills required by the industries that are still expanding.
Paragraph 2: The finance ministry estimates that GDP is V$12 billion below its full employment level. Inflation is low (Table 2). The central bank's interest rate is already 0.25%. Government debt is equal to 45% of GDP, and the government can currently borrow for ten years at an interest rate of 2%.
Paragraph 1: Option 1 is a programme of public investment in transport and energy networks costing V$4 billion. The finance ministry's estimates of what households do with extra income are shown in Table 3.
Paragraph 2: Option 2 is a cut in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 15% (Table 4), which would reduce tax revenue by about V$4 billion a year.
Paragraph 3: Option 3 is a tariff of V$3,000 on each imported car (Table 5). Velmora's car makers, who asked for the tariff, say that it would protect 4,000 jobs. Velmora's trading partners have said that they would respond with tariffs of their own.
| Item | Year 1 | Year 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP (V$ billion) | 252.0 | 250.1 |
| GDP deflator (Year 0 = 100) | 120 | 122 |
| Category | Weight in the price index (%) | Price index, Year 1 | Price index, Year 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 30 | 100 | 106 |
| Housing and energy | 40 | 100 | 100 |
| Transport | 20 | 100 | 97 |
| Other goods and services | 10 | 100 | 102 |
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Marginal propensity to save (MPS) | 0.10 |
| Marginal propensity to tax (MPT) | 0.20 |
| Marginal propensity to import (MPM) | 0.20 |
| Band of annual income (V$) | Tax rate on income in the band (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 to 10,000 | 0 |
| 10,001 to 40,000 (basic rate) | 20 |
| Above 40,000 | 40 |
| Item | Free trade | With a tariff of V$3,000 per car |
|---|---|---|
| Price of a car (V$) | 18,000 | 21,000 |
| Quantity supplied by domestic producers (thousand cars) | 50 | 65 |
| Quantity demanded (thousand cars) | 170 | 155 |